تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر تبخیر و تعرق گیاه مرجع و کمبود بارندگی در منطقه سمنان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 فارغ التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد سازه های آبی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود

2 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب و خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود.

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب و خاک، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه صنعتی شاهرود.

چکیده

افزایش انتشارگازهایگلخانه­ایدر دهه­های اخیر بر اثر فعالیت­های انسانی، منجر به گرم شدن زمین و تغییرات اقلیم گردیده است. پیش­بینی می­شود، افزایش دمای ناشی از تغییر اقلیم منجر به افزایش تبخیر و تعرق گردد. در این تحقیق، اثر تغییر اقلیم بر تبخیر و تعرق مرجع (ETo) و کمبود بارندگی (PD) در بازه زمانی 2010 تا 2099 در منطقه سمنان بررسی گردید. بدین منظور، برای در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت مدل­های AOGCM و سناریوهای انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای، سناریوهای تغییر اقلیم با استفاده از 14 مدل AOGCM تحت سه سناریوی انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای (A2، A1B و B1) تولید شد. مقادیر ETo و PD در سه سطح ریسک (25/0، 50/0 و 75/0)، برای سه دوره آینده (2039-2010، 2069-2040 و 2099-2070) و دوره پایه (2000-1971) محاسبه شد و با یکدیگر مقایسه گردید.  نتایج نشان داد، در دوره آتی سوم، بارش­های بهاره کاهش و بارش­های پاییزه و زمستانه افزایش خواهند یافت. هم­چنین مشخص شد که متوسط دما، تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل گیاه مرجع و کمبود بارندگی تا انتهای قرن روند افزایشی خواهند داشت، که افزایش این پارامترها، در طول ماه های گرم، در مقایسه با ماه های سرد، بیشتر خواهد بود. هم­چنین مشخص گردید، در دوره 2099-2070، متوسط سالانه ETo برای سناریوی A2، A1B و B1 به ترتیب حدود 2/9، 0/8 و 8/5 درصد افزایش می­یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Climate Change Impact on Reference Evapotranspiration and Precipitation Deficit in Semnan Region

نویسندگان [English]

  • Sanaz Joorabloo 1
  • Khalil Azhdary 2
  • Zahra Ganji 3
  • Mehdi Delghandi 3
1 M.Sc. graduated in water structures, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Shahrood University OF Technology
2 Associate Professor,Water and soil Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor,Water Engineering Department, Faculty of Agricultural Engineering, Shahrood University of Technology, Shahrood, Iran.
چکیده [English]

In recent years, human activities induced increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) which caused global warming and climate change. Climate change is anticipated to cause negative and adverse impacts on water systems throughout the world. Higher temperatures are expected to lead to a host of problems. These include melting snowpack, altering both the intensity and frequency of precipitation, increasing evapotranspiration and else. (Delghandi, 2016).
Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a key hydrological variable quantifying a major water loss from catchments and basins, which can be used to calculate actual evapotranspiration (ETa), scheduled irrigation and prepare input data for hydrological models. The irrigation water requirement basically represents the difference between the crop water requirement and effective precipitation. The only factors affecting ETo are climatic parameters as water is abundantly available at the reference evapotranspiring surface (Allen et al., 1998). The first of climatic parameters is air temperature. As temperature increases, evapotranspiration also goes up. Some study conducted to indicate climate change impact on ET (e.g, Behmanesh et al., 2015; Sheidaeian et al., 2015; Babaeian and Kouhi, 2012). In this study, climate change impacts on reference evapotranspiration (ETo) and precipitation deficit (PD) were studied from 2010 to 2099 in Semnan region. The objective of this study was to examine the climate change impact on the ETo regarding the uncertainty of Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCM) and Greenhouse Gases Emission (GHG) scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • AOGCM Models
  • Uncertainty
  • Reference Evapotranspiration
  • Precipitation Deficit

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