نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و خاک، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان

2 دانشجوی دکترای مهندسی منابع آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه ارومیه.

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و خاک، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.

چکیده

پایش خشکسالی یکی از فاکتور‏های مهم در مدیریت خشکسالی است. سیستم­های پایش نقش مهمی در تدوین طرح­های خشکسالی و مدیریت آن دارند. در این تحقیق از شاخص‏های SPI، PNIو  CZIبرای بیان کمی خشکسالی استفاده گردید. داده‏های بارندگی شش ایستگاه منتخب در استان آذربایجان غربی در طول دوره آماری 1990 تا 2009 مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. همچنین جهت بررسی روند خشکسالی و پهنه بندی مکانی سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی مورد استفاده قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان دهنده تطابق نسبتاً بالای شاخص‏های SPIو   CZIمی باشد. به‏منظور بررسی کارایی نمایه‏های خشکسالی در استان آذربایجان غربی، ضریب تبیین بین زوج شاخص های خشکسالی (SPI-CZI، SPI-PNI و  (CZI-PNIمحاسبه گردید. نتایج نشان داد که در اکثر ایستگاه‏ها در سطح اطمینانp<0.01  زوج نمایه ها از همبستگی بالایی نسبت به یکدیگر برخوردار هستند. این در حالی است که، در تحلیل فراوانی شاخص‏های خشکسالی، شاخص  PNIدر سال‏های نرمال اتفاق افتاده و شاخص  SPIدر ترسالی‏های ضعیف اتفاق افتاده در استان کارایی بیشتری داشته و در مورد خشکسالی‏های ضعیف تا متوسط هر سه شاخص نتایج و کارایی تقریبا یکسانی را نشان دادند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Evaluation and Comparison of Drought in West Azerbaijan Using the SPI, CZI, PNI Iindices and Geographic Information System (GIS)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Tohid Aligolinia 1
  • Negar Rasouli Majd 2
  • AboTaleb Hezar Jaribi 3

1 Candidate, Department of Water Engineering, Gorgan university of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.

2 Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Water Engineering, Urmia University, Urmia, Iran.

3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Gorgan University of Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources, Gorgan, Iran.

چکیده [English]

Recognizing and studying the drought phenomenon with regard to the affecting factors led to better understanding of this phenomenon and paved the way for short-term and long-term planning in relation to encountering, controlling and predicting of this phenomenon.Since to determine the severity, duration, and frequency of drought, is need to determine the drought by using indicators, drought monitoring is essential and researchers have always followed the use of indicators for drought monitoring as a management and planning tool. Drought monitoring is one of the prime factors in drought management. Monitoring systems have important roles in creating the drought plans and its management. Therefore, due to this importance  and taking into account the ecological and geographical conditions of Lake Urmia during recent years, the study and monitoring of drought for the above area is necessary. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the drought characteristics and calculate the three (SPI, PNI, CZI) drought indexes and comparing their efficiency and accuracy in the Western Azerbaijan province, as well as evaluating the time trends of their changes over the entire province.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Drought Analysis
  • Wet Year ng
  • Performance of Indices
  • Meteorology

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