ارزیابی وضعیت تخصیص منابع آب تحت اثر تغییر اقلیم در حوضه آبریز اهرچای

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته

2 استادیارگروه اکولوژی، پژوهشکده علوم محیطی، پژوهشگاه علوم و تکنولوژی پیشرفته و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته

3 استاد مدعو در گرایش مهندسی و مدیریت منابع آب، دانشکده عمران، دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته،

چکیده

امروزه تخصیص بهینه منابع آب برای مدیریت بین عرضه و تقاضا و هم­چنین بررسی تأثیر سناریوهای اقلیمی مؤثر بر سامانه­های آبی امری اجتناب‌ناپذیر است. در این راستا با استفاده از مدل گردش عمومی (GCMs)، مقادیر متغیرهای بارندگی و درجه حرارت در
دوره­های آتی و تحت سناریوهای انتشار گازهای گلخانه­ای A1B، A2 و B1 پیش­بینی و سپس با استفاده از مدلLARS-WG  ریزمقیاس گردید. در ادامه با کمک این متغیرهای هواشناسی، مقادیر رواناب و هم­چنین تبخیر و تعرق مرجع (ETo) به­ترتیب توسط مدل­های IHACRES و CropWat برآورد و نهایتاً خروجی این مدل­ها با هدف بررسی نیازهای مختلف منطقه و شبیه­سازی عملکرد سیستم تحت اثر سناریوهای اقلیمی به مدلWEAP وارد شدند. نتایج حاصل از ریزمقیاس کردن متغیرهای هواشناسی تحت سناریو A1B طی دوره 2030- 2011 نشان داد که در نتیجه تغییر اقلیم مقادیر متوسط بارش 3/5 درصد کاهش و متوسط دمای حداقل و دمای حداکثر هرکدام به­ترتیب 5/0 و 6/0 درجه سانتی­گراد نسبت به دوره مشاهداتی افزایش خواهند داشت. این روند تغییرات برای دو سناریو اقلیمی دیگر A2 و  B1هم تکرار شد. با اجرای مدل WEAP و اعمال تغییرات نیاز بخش­های مختلف متناسب با سه سناریو اقلیمی، این نتیجه حاصل شد که بیشترین کمبود در بخش کشاورزی بوده و ضرورت اتخاذ تصمیمات مقتضی برای مدیریت مصرف آب در این بخش را نشان می­دهد. با وقوع شرایط اقلیمی تحت سناریو انتشارA2  در منطقه، درصد تأمین نیاز کشاورزی در مقایسه با دو سناریو دیگر مقدار کمتری را نشان داد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigation of Water Allocation Conditions in Aharchay Basin under Climate Change Impacts

نویسندگان [English]

  • Samira Zeinadini 1
  • Sedigheh Anvari 2
  • Zahra Zahmatkesh 3
1 MSc in Engineering and Water Resources Management, Graduate University of Advanced Technology.
2 Assistant Professor, Department of Ecology, Institute of Science and High Technology and Environmental Science, Graduate University of Advanced Technology, Kerman, Iran
3 Visiting Professor at Deprtment of Water Resources Management, Faculty of Civil Engineering, Graduate University of Advanced Technology.
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Regarding water scarcity and climate change in Iran, it is necessary to choose an appropriate model for water resources management. To study the effects of climate change, the outputs of AOGCMs Models were used (Lane et al., 1999). Downscaled weather data using LARS-WG model were then used in the watershed simulation model to estimate the streamflow and crop water requirement so as to evaluate the effects of climate change. Hydrologic models were, indeed, needed to simulate the streamflow, and input to the watershed simulation model so as to estimate water supply in the watershed. WEAP model can be used for investigating and simulating the water system performance under the influence of climate and management scenarios. (Tarek et al., 2017). The purpose of this study was, thus, to investigate the climate change impacts on the amount of streamflow to water supply into the Sattarkhan reservoir as well as the allocation of water in Aharchay watershed.
 
 
Methodology
Historical data were used to develop and calibrate the rainfall-runoff. The projections of a GCM were downloaded and downscaled using LARS-WG. The modified weather and resultant streamflow were then implemented in WEAP to analyze climate change impacts on water allocation.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • water resource management
  • climate change
  • Rainfall-Runoff
  • Water requirement
  • WEAP
  • Aharchay basin
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