نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، واحد گرگان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرگان، ایران

2 مسئول کارگروه پژوهش هواشناسی کاربردی، اداره کل هواشناسی استان گلستان

10.22055/jise.2017.21227.1527

چکیده

به­منظور بررسی اثر عدم قطعیت خروجی مدل­های HadCM3 و ECHO-G بر پیش­بینی دمای حداقل و حداکثر، بارش و شدت خشکسالی (شاخص SPI) استان گلستان طی دوره 2045-2016 نسبت به دوره 2015-1986، خروجی این مدل­ها توسط مدل LARS-WG در 15 ایستگاه هواشناسی ریزمقیاس شد. عدم قطعیت مدل­ها به روش وزن­دهی میانگین­های مشاهداتی و نمودار جعبه­ای و تحلیل آماری داده­ها به روش آزمون­های تجزیه واریانس و مقایسه میانگین انجام گرفت. نتایج نشان داد در شبیه­سازی بارش و دما مدل HadCM3 در منطقه­های غرب و مرکز و مدل ECHO-G در منطقه شرق وزن بیشتری داشتند. در عین حال بر اساس تحلیل نمودار جعبه­ای، میزان عدم قطعیت دمای حداقل و حداکثر در بیشتر ماه­ها در دو مدل یکسان بود ولی در خصوص بارش عدم قطعیت مدل HadCM3 در اغلب ماه­ها بیشتر از مدل ECHO-G است. مطابق پیش­بینی مدل­های HadCM3 و ECHO-G، میانگین سالانه دمای حداقل به­ترتیب 5/0 و 6/1 و دمای حداکثر به­ترتیب 2/0 و 7/0 درجه سانتی­گراد افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین این مدل­ها به­ترتیب افزایش معنی­دار بارش سالانه (9/30 میلی­متر) و کاهش غیرمعنی­دار آن (8/11 میلی­متر) را پیش­بینی کردند. نتایج تجزیه واریانس نشان داد که اثر مدل­سازی در مقیاس ماهانه بر درصد وقوع دوره­های نرمال و ترسالی و در مقیاس سالانه بر درصد وقوع دوره ترسالی خیلی شدید تأثیر دارد. بیشترین مساحت طبقه­های بارش سالانه استان در دوره پایه و پیش­بینی مدل ECHO-G در محدوده 550-350 میلی­متر و در پیش­بینی مدل HadCM3 در محدوده 650-450 میلی­متر مشاهده شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Uncertainty Effect of GCMs Output on the Prediction of Meteorological Parameters in Golestan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kami Kaboosi 1
  • Mohammad Kordjazi 2

1 Departement of Water Engineering, Islamic Azad University, Gorgan Branch, Gorgan, Iran

2 Head of Applied Meteorological Research Group, Golestan Meteorological Office.

چکیده [English]

One of the important issues in assessing climate change using the output of General Circulation Models (GCMs) is their uncertainty so that the outputs of a model in a region may vary with another model in the same region. Disregarding the uncertainty of these models reduces the accuracy of the final outputs (Ashofteh and Massah, 2012). Various methods have been developed to analyze and reduce the amount of uncertainty. Among the methods used to investigate the uncertainty of the output of GCMs, one can mentioned the weighted means of observation, Wilcoxon Signed Rank test, Bootstrap confidence-interval estimation technique, Box Plot method, and the cumulative frequency distribution function. Accordingly, the present study, while predicting the temperature, precipitation and drought variables in Golestan province for the future 30 years via two general circulation models including ECHO-G and HadCM3, examined the uncertainty of these models by weighted means of observation and Box Plot methods. Also, statistical analysis of data by analysis of variance and mean comparison tests are among other goals of this research.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ECHO-G
  • HadCM3
  • LARS-WG
  • Precipitation
  • SPI
  • Temperature

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