نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد مهندسی عمران، دانشگاه زابل.

2 استادیار گروه عمران، دانشگاه زابل

10.22055/jise.2017.19075.1373

چکیده

گزارش چهارم هیأت بین الدول تغییر اقلیم (IPCC در سال 2007 با تأکید بر جنبه­های اقتصادی و توسعه سریع فناوری­های جدید و گزارش پنجم آن در سال 2013 با تأکید بیشتر بر جنبه­های اقتصادی و اجتماعی تغییر اقلیم و نقش آن در توسعه پایدار و مدیریت ریسک انتشار یافت. هدف این مطالعه، مقایسه تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر دما و بارش استان اصفهان تحت سناریوهای گزارش چهارم و پنجم می­باشد. نتایج نشان داد تا اواخر قرن بیست و یکم، تحت سناریوهای گزارش چهارم و پنجم، به ترتیب دما 49/4 و 19/4 درجه سانتی­گراد افزایش و بارش به میزان 68/4 درصد کاهش و 96/11 درصد افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین نتایج حاکی از دقت بیشتر مدل­های گزارش پنجم در مقایسه با گزارش چهارم می­باشد. پهنه­بندی اقلیمی نشان داد که تغییرات اقلیمی بخش­های غربی استان اصفهان، بیشتر از بخش­های مرکزی و شرقی می­باشد که باعث کاهش منابع آبی در بخش­های مختلف می­شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Assesment of Climate Change Effect on Temperature and Precipitation Based on Fourth and Fifth IPCC reports (Case study: Isfahan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Aghil Soltani Mohammadi 1
  • Mahmoud Reza Mollaienia 2
  • Ali Ajam Zadeh 1

1 M.Sc. Graduate of Civil Engineering, Civil Engineering Department , University of Zabol, Iran

2 Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department, University of Zabol, Iran

چکیده [English]

Climate change represents changes in the climate within the earth's atmosphere and its consequences in different parts of the planet. Changes in temperature and rainfall patterns have a great influence on the quantity and quality of water resources, especially in arid regions such as Iran, and consequences of this change on water resources are undeniable. This effect is reported to be on general circulation of the atmosphere, temperature, and precipitation. General atmospheric circulation models are the basis of all studies on climate change phenomena (Su et al., 2016). Because of the large network of these models and the low spatial resolution, some microscopic phenomena in general atmospheres cannot provide an accurate approximation of the climate conditions of the area; therefore, their output should be left to meteorological station’s micro-scale (Perkins et al., 2007).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Isfahan
  • IPCC
  • Climatic zoning

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