عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسنده [English]چکیده [English]
Todays, Climate change is one of the key issues in water resources research. Assessment the effects of climate change on runoff and inflow to reservoirs is required for planning and adaptation to climate change. The purpose of this study is probabilistic assessment impacts of climate change on runoff by analyzing uncertainty in Zard river basin, southwest of Iran under two scenarios, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, during the period of 2025 to 2054. The IHACRES model to simulate rainfall-runoff processes, a combined approach between the change factor (CF) and LARS-WG to downscaling and three management scenarios at three different percentile were used in this study. The results indicated an increasing mean annual temperature in the range of 1.64-2.04 °C and 1.85-2.4 under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Also, the results of simulation runoff under climate change indicated that generally runoff will be decreased in future periods than baseline period. The most expected reduced runoff in the critical condition is about 51% under RCP 8.5 scenario.