بررسی تغییرات اعتمادپذیری سامانه‌‌های آبگیر باران با استفاده از مدل‌های گردش عمومی جو (مطالعه موردی: شهر بیرجند)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه بیرجند

2 استادیار، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه بیرجند.

3 دانشجوی دوره دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب دانشگاه بیرجند.

چکیده

تبخیر و سایر مشخصه­ های فیزیکی مناطق خشک،باعث می‌شود تا حجم زیادی از باران از دسترس خارج و درصد کمی از آب باران به آبخوان نفوذ کند. بنابراین برای دستیابی به یک توسعه پایدار، مدیریت منابع آب براساس سامانه آبگیر آب باران مهم است. هدف اصلی این مقاله بررسی اعتمادپذیری سامانه ­های آبگیر آب باران در آینده می­باشد. از این­ رو در اولین گام بارندگی ماهانه با استفاده از­ آخرین خروجی مدل­ های منطقه‌ای گردش عمومی اتخاذ و با استفاده از روش اصلاح انحراف مکانی ریزمقیاس نمایی شد. نرمال­ سازی، همسان­ گردی، تحلیل روند و انتخاب وریوگرام در محیط MATLAB انجام شد و در نهایت بارندگی ماهانه ایستگاه سینوپتیک بیرجند با استفاده از کریجینگ ساده درون­یابی شد. با مقایسه آمار مشاهداتی بارندگی ماهانه و شبیه­سازی شده توسط مدل­های گردش عمومی در بازه زمانی 2005-1992، سعی شد تا بهترین مدل با بیشترین تطبیق انتخاب گردد. در نهایت بررسی اعتمادپذیری سامانه ­های آبگیر باران در سطوح و احجام مختلف پشت بام و تانک­های ذخیره مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که با اتکا به کارایی سامانه­ های جمع­آوری آب باران می‌توان بخش قابل توجهی از نیاز خانگی را برطرف نمود. دامنه تغییرات اعتمادپذیری این سامانه­ ها در دوره پایه بین 05/0 تا 45/0 تخیمن زده شد و پیش­بینی اعتمادپذیری در دوره آینده نیز نشان داد که این حدود افزایش خواهد داشت. همچنین نتایج نشان داد که میزان اعتمادپذیری این سامانه­ ها برای خانواده­ های با جمعیت 3 نفر یا بیشتر، حداکثر معادل 4/0 خواهد بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessment of Reliability Variations of the Rainwater Catchment System Using Future GCM Output Data (Case Study: Birjand City)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Pourreza-Bilondi 1
  • Abbas Khashei-Siuki 1
  • Mostafa Yaghoobzadeh 2
  • Ahmad Jafarzadeh 3
1 Associate professor, Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Iran.
2 Assistant professor, Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Iran.
3 Ph.D. candidate of water resource engineering, Department of Water Engineering, University of Birjand, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Evaporation loss is a key component of water resource management in arid and semi-arid regions where they are not uniformly distributed temporally. Also, due to the climate condition and physical characteristics of arid areas, a major part of rainfall will be out of reach in the form of flash floods and a few percent is recharged to groundwater aquifers. Rainwater harvesting system (RWHS) is considered as one of the most instrumental techniques that can save rainwater for domestic or agricultural uses. It is a technology used for collecting and storing rainwater in rooftops, land surfaces, or rock catchments using some simple techniques, such as natural and/or artificial ponds and reservoirs. In recent years, climate change has caused significant changes in the meteorological and hydrological components. Also, since precipitation is the main driver of RWHS, changes in its value and time can significantly change the operation of these systems. Therefore, in order to reach sustainable development, water resource management based on rainwater harvesting systems will be inevitable. These systems are moderately reliable methods to increase available water. The main aim of this study is the reliability assessment of rainwater harvesting systems designed for a future period (2017-2030) in Birjand, the center of Southern Khorasan Province, east of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Spatial Bias Correction
  • Reliability
  • rainwater harvesting
  • Dynamical Downscaling

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