مقایسه تطبیقی شاخص های SPI، RDI و SPEI در تحلیل روند شدت، مدت و فراوانی خشک سالی در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران

2 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه هرمزگان، بندرعباس، ایران.

3 دانشیار گروه هواشناسی کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران.

چکیده

در این تحقیق، از شاخص‌های  SPIRDI و SPEI برای تحلیل روند شدت- مدت- فراوانی خشک‌سالی در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک ایران استفاده گردید. تعداد 25 ایستگاه سینوپتیک در اقلیم فوق با طول دوره مشترک آماری (1996-2014) انتخاب و شدت، مدت و فراوانی خشک‌سالی در هشت زیراقلیم برآورد گردید. نتایج نشان داد که روند خشک­سالی از مقیاس کوتاه مدت (سه ماهه) تا بلندمدت (48 ماهه) در اقلیم‌های سرد و خشک رو به کاهش و در اقلیم‌های گرم و خشک رو به افزایش است. بیشترین و کمترین توافق (با مقدار 99/0 و 14/0) بین دو شاخص SPI- RDI و SPI- SPEI به‌ ترتیب در اقلیم فراگرم فراخشک و فراسرد فراخشک در مقیاس 48 ماهه مشاهده گردید. رابطه SPI- RDI و SPEI- RDI نیز در بزرگی و تداوم خشک‌سالی در اقلیم های سرد در اغلب موارد ضعیف و منفی (با مقدار 32/0 و 06/0-) و در مورد اقلیم­ های گرم، بیشترین هم‌بستگی در اقلیم فراخشک فراگرم (98/0) بین SPEI-RDI مشاهده گردید. در بررسی هم‌بستگی  شاخص‌ها در برآورد فراوانی خشک­سالی، کمترین هم‌بستگی  بین زوج شاخص SPI-SPEI و SPEI- RDI در اقلیم‌های فراخشک سرد و سرد نیمه‌خشک (39/0 و 34/0) و بیشترین مقادیر هم‌بستگی  بین زوج شاخص SPI-RDI (99/0) مشاهده گردید. روند شدت- مدت- فراوانی خشک­سالی با استفاده از آماره من کندال نشان می‌دهد که روند خشک­سالی در  اقلیم‌های گرم و خشک رو به افزایش  ( بیش از 61/2-) و در اقلیم‌های سرد و خشک رو به کاهش ( بیش از 61/2+) است. SPEI مقدار روند را با شدت بیشتری برآورد نموده است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Adaptive Evaluation of SPI, RDI, and SPEI indices in Analyzing the Trend of Intensity, Duration, and Frequency of Drought in Arid and Semi-Arid Regions of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Ommilbanin Bazrafshan 1
  • Fuzieh Mahmoudzadeh 2
  • Amin Asgari Nezhad 2
  • Javad Bazrafshan 3
1 Assistant Professor, Department of Natural Resource Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abass, Iran
2 M.Sc. Graduate of Natural Resource Engineering, Department of Natural Resource Engineering, University of Hormozgan, Bandar Abass, Iran.
3 Associate professor, Department of Agrometeorology, University of Tehran, Karaj, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Drought is one of the most important weather-induced phenomena which may have severe impacts on different areas, such as agriculture, economy, energy production, and society. From a meteorological point of view, drought can be induced by lack of precipitation, hot temperatures, and enhanced evapotranspiration. The efficiency of the drought monitoring system depends on the index which is selected based on the drought and climate conditions of the region. Precipitation-based drought indices, including the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993), China Z Index (CZI), (Percent of Normal Index) PNI, and others cannot identify the role of the temperature increase in the drought condition and in addressing the consequences of climate change. Recently, two new standardized drought indices have been proposed for drought analysis on multiple time scales: the Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI) (Tsakiris and Vangelis, 2005) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) (Vicente Serrano et al., 2011). The objective of this study is to evaluate the characteristics of drought, according to SPEI, SPI, and RDI. In addition, this study evaluates trends in meteorological drought frequency, duration, and severity during the study period through a multi-indicator approach and at low rainfall regions of Iran, providing a complete picture of the areas that suffered frequent and severe droughts in the past periods. Moreover, this might push towards the development of better frameworks for drought assessment, adaptation, and mitigation, in a possibly drier future.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • drought characteristics
  • Evapotranspiration
  • trend analysis
  • Sub-Climate

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