شبیه‌سازی متغیرهای هیدرواقلیمی توسط AOGCMs و بررسی دامنه تغییرات متغیرها تحت‌ تأثیر تغییر اقلیم در حوضه دزعلیا

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، پردیس علوم و تحقیقات خوزستان، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز ، ایران.

2 گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، واحد اهواز، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اهواز، ایران

چکیده

در راستای بررسی اثرات تغییراقلیم بر سامانه‌های منابع آب، به‌منظور دستیابی به نتایج معتبرتر و مطمئن‌تر، در نظر گرفتن عدم قطعیت در مراحل مختلف مطالعات تغییر اقلیم ضرورت دارد. هدف از این پژوهش توجه به عدم قطعیت با بررسی محدوده تغییرات متغیرهای هیدرواقلیمی شبیهسازی شده در دوره آتی در حوضه دزعلیا میباشد. به این منظور از شبیهسازی دو مؤلفه اصلی اقلیم (دما و بارش) حاصل از 10 مدل گردش کلی جو تحت سناریوهای انتشار (SRES) A1B، A2و B1و دو روش ریزمقیاس نمایی در دوره 2069-2040 میلادی برای حوضه دزعلیا استفاده شد. با معرفی سری­های زمانی دما و بارش شبیهسازی شده حاصل از مدلهای AOGCMریزمقیاس شده توسط دو روش تناسبی و آماری، سری زمانی روانآب روزانه با استفاده از روش شبکه عصبی مصنوعی حوضه دزعلیا در دوره 2069-2040 تولید گردید. نتایج نشان داد که روند تغییرات روانآب در دوره آتی (2069-2049) نسبت به دوره پایه (2000-1971) مشابه، لیکن دامنه­ی این تغییرات متفاوت می‌باشد. بیشترین درصد افزایش در روانآب مربوط به فصل زمستان با %9±13/74  است. در بررسی دامنه تغییرات دما و بارش تحت سناریوهای انتشار A1B، A2و B1، سناریو A1Bبیشترین و سناریو A2کمترین عدم قطعیت ناشی از هر دو روش ریزمقیاس نمایی را نشان داد. بهطورکلی در بررسی محدوده تغییرات متغیرهای هیدرواقلیمی در دوره آتی، عدم قطعیت مربوط به مدلهای گردش عمومی جو (AOGCMs) تحت هر سه سناریوی انتشار بیشتر از روش‌های ریزمقیاس نمایی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Simulation of Hydro-Climatic Variables by AOGCMs, Evaluating the Range of Changes in Variables, Due to Climate Change, in Upper Dez (Dez Oliya) Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hojat Taban 1
  • Narges Zohrabi 2
  • Ali Reza Nikbakht Shahbazi 2
1 MSc, Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Khuzestan Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran.
2 Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Ahvaz branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran
چکیده [English]

Climate change, in addition to increasing temperature, causes changes in the duration, intensity, form, and timing of rainfall in different parts of the Earth, which can cause droughts and floods. It also changes the volume, duration, and runoff duration, which will bring about many developments and changes in the water-resource management (Kamal and Massah Bavani, 2009). In order to reduce inconsistencies, studying the impacts of climate change on water resources is necessary. One of the most widely used models for these future studies is Atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) (Wilby and Harris, 2006). In general, most studies present a high degree of uncertainty as a result of using AOGCMs in the simulation of climate change and hydrology parameters. the outputs of simulated water-resource models under climate change could be relied on when the uncertainties are taken into account at all stages (Semenov and Stratonovitch, 2010). In order to innovate the research method, in this study 10 AOGCMs under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) were used in the simulated range of hydro-climatic variables through climatic models and downscaling methods in the Dez Oliya basin during 2040-2069. In Summary, when reviewing the range of hydro-climatic variable changes in the future period, it could be observed that the uncertainty of AOGCMs under all three emission scenarios is greater than the downscaling methods.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • climate change
  • Uncertainty
  • downscaling
  • Climate Model
  • Emission Scenario

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