Assessment the Impacts of climate change under the Fifth Report scenarios on streamflow (case study: Dez watershed)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 Jundi-Shapur University of Technology, Dezful, Iran

2 Office of water and environmental models, Khuzestan Water and Power Authority (KWPA), Ahvaz, Iran

3 Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering Department, Jundi-Shapur University of Technology, Dezful, Iran

Abstract

Todays, the phenomenon of global warming and climate change is taking place due to the industrialization of the world and the ever-increasing rise of greenhouse gas emissions in the Earth's atmosphere. The warmer climate conditions will exacerbate the water cycle, change in rainfall, and change in the amount and time of the coming runoff. Assessment of streamflow changes in consequences of climate change is one of the most important factors in water resources management planning and this is vital especially in areas where large crowds are engaged in agriculture. For this purpose, the output of two Global Climate Models (GCMs) from the fifth report under two scenarios: RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 was used to assess the impacts of climate change on the flow of the Dez stream. Change factor method was used for bias correction between GCMs output models and observations and the IHACRES model was used to simulate the streamflow. The results indicated that runoff in RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 scenarios for the two period 2011-2035 and 2036-2060 would increase in the range of 0/7 and 31/6, 16/9 and 23/2 percent, respectively, compared to the historical period.

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History

  • Receive Date: 05 October 2017
  • Revise Date: 10 September 2018
  • Accept Date: 30 September 2018
  • First Publish Date: 13 May 2019

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