Monitoring and Prediction of Khuzestan Province, Iran Drought Using SPI drought Index and Markov Chain

Document Type : Research Paper


1 M.A. Student, Dep. of Water Resource Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz

2 Professor, Islamic Azad University, Shoushtar Branch


In the present study, monitoring, prediction and zoning of drought in Khuzestan province were investigated using time series provided by Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Markov Chain. The obtained results showed that in all stations, based on the SPI index and during a six-month period, the almost normal condition has the highest frequency and is existent in between 33 to 42 percent of all cases. Probability of passing from a specific condition to the same condition in sequential periods is extremely high, and in turn, the probability of passing from the dry condition to wet condition and the other way around is quite low. In average, the possibility of reaching a balance between dry, normal and wet periods in stations of the region are 30.8, 36.5 and 32.7 percent respectively. The average continuity of drought periods predicted on a 6-month scale varied from a minimum of 3 months in Paye- pole station to a maximum of 4.6 months in Shohadaye-Behbahan Dam station. It is predicted that in the next ten years, Khuzestan province will be dealing with 35.5 months of drought.