Reservoir Evaporation Trend Analysis and Its Prediction using Time Series

Bahmani, Ramin; Radmanesh, Fereydon; Islamian, SeyedSaeid; Parham, Gholamali

Reservoir Evaporation Trend Analysis and Its Prediction using Time Series

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

¹ M.Sc. Student, Dept. of Water Resources, Shahid Chamran University.

² Assistant Professor, Dept. of Water Resources, Shahid Chamran University.

³ Associate Professor, Dept. of Agriculture, Isfahan University Technology

⁴ Associate Professor, College of math and Computer Dept. of Sats.

Abstract

Evaporation is one of the important factors in water loss from dam reservoirs. Therefore, the accurate prediction highly helps the reservoir planning and optimum water usage. In this study, using the recorded pan data the evaporation trend is determinded by seasonal Mann-Kendal Test, then the reservoir evaporation is predicted by the time series analysis. After determining the stationary situation of data , the models SARIMA(0,0,1)×(2,0,2)₁₂, SARIMA(1,0,0)×(1,1,1)₁₂ and SARIMA(1,0,0)×(2,1,2)₁₂ are fund to be suitable for stations Behbahan, Dez and Pay-pol respectively. The results show that due to the data limitation and the predominat assumptions in Time Series method, these models are reliable for the short term prediction.

Keywords