The Intensity and Return Period of Drought under Future Climate Change Scenarios In Dezful, Iran

Document Type : Research Paper



One of the most serious consequences of climate change is how it will affect droughts and water resources. This study aims at investigating the impact of climate change on droughts conditions in Dezfool-Andimesh Plain using the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). To achieve this objective, output of four general circulation models (GCMs) under the A2 scenario were downscaled for two climate stations in the period of 2060-2084 compared to the baseline period (1985-2009). Regarding the dominant crop grown in the study area, a 6-month SPI for the baseline and future periods were estimated under the four GCM-scenarios. Results revealed that there is an increase in the duration of severe and mild droughts while there is a decrease in the duration of moderate droughts. This implies that droughts will be a concern in the future during the growing season (for the dominant crop) which should be considered in water resources management.