Simulation of Hydro-Climatic Variables by AOGCMs, Evaluating the Range of Changes in Variables, Due to Climate Change, in Upper Dez (Dez Oliya) Basin

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 MSc, Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Khuzestan Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran.

2 Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Ahvaz branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran

3 Department of Water Sciences and Engineering, Ahvaz branch, Islamic Azad University, Ahvaz, Iran.

Abstract

Climate change, in addition to increasing temperature, causes changes in the duration, intensity, form, and timing of rainfall in different parts of the Earth, which can cause droughts and floods. It also changes the volume, duration, and runoff duration, which will bring about many developments and changes in the water-resource management (Kamal and Massah Bavani, 2009). In order to reduce inconsistencies, studying the impacts of climate change on water resources is necessary. One of the most widely used models for these future studies is Atmosphere-ocean General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) (Wilby and Harris, 2006). In general, most studies present a high degree of uncertainty as a result of using AOGCMs in the simulation of climate change and hydrology parameters. the outputs of simulated water-resource models under climate change could be relied on when the uncertainties are taken into account at all stages (Semenov and Stratonovitch, 2010). In order to innovate the research method, in this study 10 AOGCMs under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (A1B, A2, and B1) were used in the simulated range of hydro-climatic variables through climatic models and downscaling methods in the Dez Oliya basin during 2040-2069. In Summary, when reviewing the range of hydro-climatic variable changes in the future period, it could be observed that the uncertainty of AOGCMs under all three emission scenarios is greater than the downscaling methods.

Keywords


1-    Anonymous, 2007. IPCC Climate Change: The PhysicalScience Basis. Contribution of Working Group I tothe Fourth Assessment Report of theIntergovernmental Panel onClimate Change,Solomon, S., Qin, D., Manning, M., Chen, Z., Marquis, M., Averyt, K.B., Tignor, M. and H.L. Miller[eds]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp 996.
 
2-    Anonymous, 2013. IPCC Climate Change: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of WorkingGroup I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[Stocker, T.F., Qin, D. and Plattner, G.-K., Tignor, M., Allen, S.K., Boschung, J., Nauels, A.,Xia, Y., Bex, V. and P.M. Midgley. (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UnitedKingdom and New York, NY, USA.
 
3-    Babaeian, E., Nagafineik, Z., Zabolabasi, F., Habeibei, M., Adab, H. and Malbisei, S, 2010. Climate Change Assessment over Iran During 2010-2039 by Using Statistical Downscaling of ECHO- G Model. Geography and Development Iranian Journal, 7(16), pp.135-152. (In Persian).
 
4-    Delghandi, M. and Moazenzadeh, R, 2017. Investigating spatiotemporal variations of precipitation and temperature over Iran under climate change condition considering AOGCM models and emission scenarios uncertainty. Iranian Journal of Echo Hydrology, 3(3), pp.321-331. (In Persian).
 
5-    Gharib Doost, M., Ghorbani, M. and Hosseini Zadeh, A, 2017. Estimate The Amount of Climate Change Effects on Rainfall-Runoff if Sufi-Chi Basin. Journal of Irrigation Sciences and Engineering, 40(2), pp.89-101. (In Persian).
 
6-    Goodarzi, A, 2010. Investigating the effects of climate change on the flood flow regime of the Azam River in Herat-Yazd. Master of Sciences. Faculty of Natural Resources and Desertification, Yazd University. (In Persian).
 
7-    Haghizadeh, A., Mohammadlou, M. and Noori, F, 2015. Simulation of Rainfall-Runoff Process using multilayer perceptron and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Interface System and multiple regression (Case Study: Khorramabd Watershed). Iranian Journal of Echo Hydrology, 2(2), pp.233-243. (In Persian).
 
8-    Hamlet, A. and Lettenmaier, D, 2007. Effects of 20th century warming and climate variability on flood risk in the western U.S. Water Resources Research, 43(6):1-17.
 
9-    Jahanbakhsh Asl, S., Khorshidoust, A., Aalinejad, M. and Pourasghar, F, 2016. Impact of Climate Change on Precipitation and Temperature by Taking the Uncertainty of Models and Climate Scenarios (Case Study: Shahrchay Basin in Urmia). Hydrogeomorphology, 2(7), pp.107-122. (In Persian).
 
10- Jones, P.D. and Hulme, M, 1996. Calculating regional climatic times series for temperature and precipitation: methods and illustrations. International Journal of Climatology, 16 (4), pp. 361-377.
 
11- Kamal, A, and Masah Bavani, A, 2009. Comparison of the Uncertainty of AOGCM-TAR and AOGCM-AR4 Models in evaluating runoff under the condition of Climate Change (Case Study: Qarah Su Basin). In: Proceedings of the Eighth International River Engineering Conference. (In Persian).
 
12- Masah Bavani, A, 2006. Evaluating Hazards and Its Impact on Water Resources (Case Study: Zayandehrood River Basin). Ph.D. Tarbiat Modares University of Tehran. (In Persian).
 
13- Masah Bavani, A., Moeid, S. and Mohammad Zadeh, M, 2006. The future status of Zayandehrud basin climate under the influence of climate change (comparisons between scenarios of different AOGCM models). In: Second Iranian Water Resources Conference. (In Persian).
14- Minville, M., Brissette, F. and Leconte, R, 2008. Uncertainty of the impact of climate change on the hydrology of a nordic watershed, Journal of Hydrology, 358 (1-2), pp.70– 83.
 
15- Nikbakht Shahbazi, A, 2014. Climate change impact on meteorological droughts in watershed scale (case study: southwestern Iran). International Journal of Engineering & Technology, 4(1), p.1.
 
16- Racsko, P., Szeidl, L. and Semenov, M, 1991. A serialapproach to local stochastic weather models.Ecological Modeling. 57(1), pp. 27–41.
 
17- Semenov, M.A. and Barrow, E.M, 1997. Use of a stochasticweather generator in the development of climatechange scenarios. Climate Change. 35, pp.397–414.
 
18- Semenov, M. and Stratonovitch, P, 2010. Use of multi-model ensembles from global climate models for assessment of climate change impacts. Climate Research, 41, pp.1-14.
 
19- Wilby, R.L. and Harris, I, 2006. A frame work for assessing uncertainties in climate change impacts: low flow scenarios for the River Thames, UK. Water Resources Research. 42 (2), pp.1-10.
 
20- Yaghobi, M. and Massah Bavani, A, 2016. Comparison and Evaluation of Different Sources of Uncertainty in the Study of Climate Change Impact on Runoff in Semi-arid Basins (Case study: Azam Harat River Basin). Comparison and Evaluation of Different Sources of Uncertainty in the Study of Climate Change Impact on Runoff in Semi-arid Basins (Case study: Azam Harat River Basin), IRAN-Water Resources Research 11(3), pp.113-130. (In Persian).
 
21- Zarghami, M., Abdi, A., Babaeian, I., Hassanzadeh, Y. and Kanani, R, 2011. Impacts of climate change on runoffs in East Azerbaijan. Global and Planetary Change. 78, pp.137-146.
 
22- Zohrabi, N., Massahbavani, A., Telvari, A. and Sedghi, H, 2013. Climate Change Detection and Green House Gases Attribution to it Using AOGCMs Models and Two-Dimensional Normal Distribution (Case Study; Large Karoon River Basin). Iranian Water Resources Research, 9(2), pp.1-8. (In Persian).
Volume 42, Issue 3
October 2019
Pages 147-161
  • Receive Date: 25 June 2016
  • Revise Date: 06 December 2017
  • Accept Date: 10 December 2017
  • Publish Date: 23 September 2019