Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
1
PhD Candidate in Irrigation and Drainage Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
2
Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran,
3
Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran.
4
Assistant Professor, Department of Water Resources Study and Research, Water Research Institute (WRI), Tehran, Iran
5
Assistant Professor, Department of Water Engineering, College of Agriculture, Isfahan University of Technology, Isfahan, Iran
Abstract
Every year, the occurrence early autumn and late spring frosts due to the coincidence with the critical stages of plant life reduces the yield of agricultural products. In this study, the minimum temperature data of the previous period and the outputs of General Circulation Models were downscaled by LARS-WG for the future period (2051-2022) base on the three emission scenarios SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 of Isfahan province was used. The results show that the average date of first early fall frost in Ardestan, Khour and Biabanak and Natanz Station in the next period based on the three emission scenarios occur 1 to 6 days later than the previous period and the last spring frost in Ardestan station in the next period based on the three emission scenarios occurs 5, 4 and 3 days later than the previous period, respectively. According to the average date of first early fall frost and the average date of last late spring frost, the most changes in the length of the growth period are related to Chadegan station, which based on the SSP585 scenario, increases by 21 days compared to the previous period. The most decreasing changes during the frost period occurs in Khour and Biabanak station based on the SSP585 scenario and the most decreasing changes in number of frost days in Chadegan station based on the SSP585 scenario is 26 days.
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