Drought risk prediction in Zabol based on the output of CMIP6 climate models

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Student, Water Resources, Department of Water Science and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran

2 Department of science and water engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Birjand

Abstract

Drought is one of the most complex natural hazards.Due to the importance of drought and action to minimize the damage caused by this natural disaster in the present study, the SPI drought index in the southeastern region of Iran in Zabol city has been investigated using 4 GCM models presented in CMIP6. In this study, two scenarios, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, have been used to estimate SPI in the two periods of 2044-2025 and 2084-2065, and the BCSD downscale method has been used to predict meteorological data. According to the results obtained in both SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios and in all the studied models, the 20-year average of the 6-month SPI index shows the highest negative value. In addition, the comparison of models and scenarios in this study shows that in BCC-ESM2-MR model, the 20-year average of 6-month SPI index and in CanESM5 model, 12 and 48-month index is higher than other models. Also, SPI index in12- and 48-months’ time scale shows the severity of drought in the studied periods more than 6 months’ time scale and in the studied time scales, both scenarios are almost compatible.According to the results of this study, in general, the years with normal status have decreased and the number of years with drought status has increased compared to the base period. The results also show that in the most pessimistic case, the number of dry years in Zabol city will be 14 years and the CanESM5 model can be used to predict the drought index

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History

  • Receive Date: 07 March 2022
  • Revise Date: 01 December 2022
  • Accept Date: 10 December 2022
  • First Publish Date: 10 December 2022

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