Effect of Climate Change on Water Requirement of Rice Crop in the Tajan Watershed

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 PhD Student in Watershed Management, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran.

2 Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran

3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Management and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.

Abstract

Climate change has greatly challenged the management of water resources due to its impact on water requirements of crops. In this research, the effect of climate change on water requirement of Rice crop was simulated in the study area of ​​ the Tajan watershed and its changes until 2060 were studied. To investigate climate change, Lars-WG software and HadGEM2 model outputs under (RCP 2.6) and (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios have been used. To evaluate the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on water requirement, using CROPWAT 8.0 software, potential and actual evapotranspiration and effective rainfall were calculated for the future period and crop water requirement was determined and compared with the water requirement of the current period. The results showed that the mean water requirement of Rice crop in the RCP 2.6 scenario were predicted in 2040-2021 and 2041-2060 periods is equal to 658.27 and 658.46 mm, respectively, and in the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2040-2021 and 2041-2060 periods were predicted to be equal to 672.93 and 673 mm, respectively. Therefore, according to both climate scenarios, the water requirement has increased in all time periods compared to the current period, which is about 648 mm.
Mazandaran is a province based on agricultural production and it has long been one of the centers of Rice cultivation as the second strategic product of the country. planting Rice is very vital and important for the economy of the whole region. Therefore, it is necessary to study the evaluation of changes in the water requirement of Products in response to climate change conditions.
Various researchers investigated the effects of climate change on water requirement, some of which are mentioned below.
Casolani et al. (2020) in a study investigated the effect of climate change on water requirement of crops. The results showed that the water requirement in the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 will increase by 6, 19, and 24 percent, respectively, compared to the current period. Jia et al. (2021) investigated the changes in the water requirement of crops under climate change conditions. The results showed that the effective rainfall increases by 0.98 mm per year and the water requirement decreases by 2.27 mm per year.

Keywords

Main Subjects


1- Ali, M.H. and Mubarak, S., 2017. Effective rainfall calculation methods for field crops: An Overview, Analysis and New Formulation. Asian Research Journal of Agriculture,7(1), pp. 1-12.
 
2- Alizadeh, A., 2011. Soil, Water and Plant Relationship (12th Ed). Emam Reza University Press, Mashhad, Iran. (In Persian).
 
3- Allen, R.G., Pereira, L.S., Raes, D. and  Smith, M., 1998. Crop evapotranspiration guidelines for computing crop water requirements. FAO Irrigation and Drainage Paper 56, Rome, Italy.
 
4- Ansari Ghojghar, M., Pourgholam Amiji, M. and Araghinejad, SH., 2020. Investigating the Relationship between Drought and Trend of the Frequency of Dust Storms in the West and Southwest of Iran. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 51 (11), pp. 2839-2852. (In Persian). DOI: 10.22059/ijswr.2020.304439.668648.
 
5- Arefinia, A., Ahmadaali, KH. and Nasiri Maryan, M., 2020. Estimating the Winter Wheat Water Requirement under Climate Change Scenarios in Gorgan Plain. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 51 (7), pp. 1857-1868. (In Persian). DOI: 10.22059/ijswr.2020.292692.668398.
 
6- Avand, M., Moradi, H. and Ramazanzadeh lasboyee, M., 2021. Using Machine Learning Models, Remote Sensing, and GIS to Investigate the Effects of Changing Climates and Land Uses on Flood Probability. Journal of Hydrology, 595, pp. 125663. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125663.
 
7- Bannayan, M., Sanjani, S., Alizadeh, A. and Lotfabadi, S., 2010. Association between climate indices, aridity index, and rain fed crop yield in northeast of Iran. Field Crops Research Journal, 118(2), pp. 105-114. DOI: 10.1016/j.fcr.2010.04.011.
 
8- Barzegari, F. and Malekinezhad, H., 2017. Investigation of the Effects of Climate Change on Sustainability of Water Need and Water Consumption of Agricultural Section in the Yazd-Ardakan Plain. Journal of Agroecology, 10 (4), pp. 1161-1176. (In Persian). DOI: 10.22067/jag.v10i4.62527.
 
9- Burr, E., 1964. Distribution of the two-sample Cram´er-von Mises W2 and Watson’s U2. The Annuals of Mathematical Statistics, 35(3), pp. 1091-1098. DOI: 10.1214/aoms/1177703267.
 
10- Casolani, N., Cartone, A., Postiglione, P. and Liberatore, L., 2020. Climate variability in agriculture and crop water requirement: Spatial analysis of Italian provinces. Journal of Cleaner Production, 262, pp. 121331. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.121331.
 
11- Chattaraj, S., Chakraborty, D., Sehgal, V.K., Paul, R.K., Singh, S.D., Daripa, A. and Pathak, H., 2014. Predicting the impact of climate change on water requirement of wheat in the semi-arid Indo-Gangetic Plains of India. Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment, 197, pp. 174–183. DOI: 10.1016/j.agee.2014.07.023.
 
12- Darzi Naftchali, A. and Karandish, F., 2016. Rice Cultivation Management in Mazandaran Province under Climate Change. Water Research in Agriculture, 30 (3), pp. 333-346. (In Persian).
 
13- Gkatsopoulos, P., 2017. A Methodology for Calculating Cooling from Vegetation Evapotranspiration for Use in Urban Space Microclimate Simulations. Procedia Environmental Sciences, 38, pp. 477 – 484.  DOI: 10.1016/j.proenv.2017.03.139.
 
14- Goodarzi, M., Khosravanian, J. and Hejazi, A., 2015. Prediction of climatic parameters using Lars-WG model in Gharesu. Geographic Space, 15 (51), pp.263-279. (In Persian).
 
15- IPCC., 2013. Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovern-mental Panel on Climate Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cam-bridge, United Kingdom and New York, USA.
 
16- IPCC., 2014. Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report. Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Group I, II and III to Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In: R. Pachauri and L. Meyer (eds). Geneva, Switzerland.
 
17- Irannezhad, E., Mohammadi, H. and Borna, R., 2020. The effect of climate change on the water demand of rice in Mazandaran province. Natural Geography, 12 (46), pp. 1-14. (In Persian).
 
18- Jia,  K., Yang, Y., Dong, G., Zhang, C. and Lang, T., 2021. Variation and determining factor of winter wheat water requirements under climate change. Agricultural Water Management, 254, pp. 106967. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2021.106967.
 
19- Kolmogorov, A., 1933. Sulla determinazione empirica di una legge di distribuzione. Giornale dell’Istituto Italiano degli Attuari. 4, pp. 83–91.
 
20- Lall, A., 2015. Data streaming algorithms for the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. IEEE International Conference on Big Data, pp. 95–104. DOI: 10.1109/BigData.2015.7363746.
 
21- Li, Z., Fang, G., Chen, Y., Duan, W. and Mukanov, Y., 2020. Agricultural water demands in Central Asia under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming. Agricultural Water Management, 231, pp. 106020. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2020.106020.
 
22- Mohebi, A.H., 2020. Investigation of Water Requirements of Date Palms in Bam Region Due to Climate Change in Future Periods. Journal of Water and Sustainable Development, 7 (3), pp. 83-87. (In Persian).
 
23- Mojarad, F., Ghamarnia, H. and Nasiri, S., 2005. Estimation of effective rainfall and water requirement for rice cultivation in Mazandaran Plain. Geographical Research Quarterly, 54, pp. 59-76. (In Persian).
 
24- Monteith, J. L., 1965. Evaporation and environment. 19th Symposia of the Society for Experimental Biology.19, pp. 205–234.
 
25- Monteith, J.L. and Unsworth, M.H., 1990. Principles of environmental physics (2nd ed). Edward-Arnold Publishers Ltd. New York.
 
26- Nikbakht, J., Mohammadi, K. and Ehteshami, M., 2007. Estimation of Crop Evapotranspiration in Different Probability Levels: Case study in Maragheh, East AzarBaijan. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 13 (1), pp. 95-106. (In Persian).
 
27- Ramezani Etedali, H., Ahmadaali, K., Gorgin, F. and Collins, B., 2019. Optimization of the cropping pattern of main cereals and improving water productivity: application of the water footprint concept. Irrigation and Drainage, 68(4), pp. 765-777. DOI: 10.1002/ird.2362.
 
28- Sadhanala, V., Wang, Y.X., Ramdas A. and Tibshirani, R.J., 2019. A higher-order kolmogorovsmirnov test. arXiv preprint arXiv, pp.1903.10083.
 
29- Semenov, M.A. and Barrow, E.M., 2002. LARS-WG: A Stochastic Weather Generator for Use in Climate Impact Studies. User’s manual, Version 3.0. Rothamsted Research Station.
 
30- Sheidaeian, M., Ziatabar Ahmadi, M.Kh. and Fazloula, R., 2015. Study on Climate Change Effect on Net Irrigation Requirement and Yield for Rice Crop (Case Study: Tajan Plain). Water and Soil, 28 (6), pp. 1284-1297. (In Persian).
 
31- Smirnov, N., 1948. Table for estimating the goodness of fit of empirical distributions. Annals of Mathematical Statistics, 19(2), pp. 279–281.
 
32- Utset, A., Velicia, H., Delrio, B., Morillo, R., Centenio, J. A. and Martinez, J. C., 2007. Calibrating and validating an agrohidlogical model to simulate sugar beet water use under Mediterranean conditions. Agricultural Water Management, 94(3), pp. 11-21. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2007.07.007.
 
33- Vila-Traver, J., Gonzalez de Molina, M., Infante-Amate, J. and Aguilera, E., 2022. Disentangling the effect of climate and cropland changes on the water performance of agroecosystems (Spain, 1922–2016). Journal of Cleaner Production, 344, pp. 130811. DOI: 10.1016/j.jclepro.2022.130811.
 
34- Wang, J., 2010. Food security, food prices and climate change in China: A dynamic panel data analysis. Journal of Agriculture and Agricultural Science Procedia, 1, pp. 321-324.
 
35- Wang, J., Liu, X., Cheng, K., Zhang, X., Li, L. and Pan, G., 2018. Winter wheat water requirement and utilization efficiency under simulated climate change conditions: A Penman-Monteith model evaluation. Agricultural Water Management ,197, pp. 100–109. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2017.11.015.
 
36- Wilks, D.S., 2006. Statistical methods in the atmospheric sciences (2nd ed). Academic Press. Elsevier Inc. U. S. A, pp. 627.
 
37- Xiao, Y., Gordon, A. and Yakovlev, A., 2007. A C++ program for the Cram´er-von Mises two-sample test. Journal of Statistical Software, 17(8) , pp. 1-15. DOI: 10.18637/jss.v017.i08.
 
38- Ye, Q., Yang, X., Dai, S., Chen, G., Li, Y. and Zhang, C., 2015. Effects of climate change on suitable rice cropping areas, cropping systems and crop water requirements in southern China. Agricultural Water Management, 159, pp. 35–44. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2015.05.022.
Volume 47, Issue 2
September 2024
Pages 69-86
  • Receive Date: 05 February 2023
  • Revise Date: 10 September 2023
  • Accept Date: 13 September 2023
  • Publish Date: 22 August 2024