Forecasting of Water Table Fluctuations Using MODFLOW Numerical Model from 1387 to 1437 in Garbaygan Aquifer

Document Type : Research Paper


1 Research Assistant Professor, ُSoil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute.

2 Expert in Research Institute for Soil Conservation and Watershed Management.

3 Research Assistant Professor, ُSoil Conservation and Watershed Management Research Institute

4 Associate Professor, Natural Resources and Marin Sciences Faculty, Tarbiat Modares University


Sustainable management of groundwater resources in underdeveloped
regions is one of the essential objectives for the future, especially when the
rising demand for clean drinking water by these fast growing communities is
considered. Uncontrolled expansion of industries, agriculture and settlements
as well as insufficient management imposed on groundwater resources are main
reason for proper management methods. Based on capability of good match advanced
models in groundwater simulation with hydraulic system of aquifer and
prediction of future situations created suitable conditions for management and
exploitation these resources. Objects of present research is evaluating of
precision of MODFLOW mathematical model in order to representative of proper
management in groundwater resources in Garbaygan plain as a region with
strategic importance in farming. To start doing this study, input layers of
model was created by using geographic information system (GIS). Afterwards
boundary condition and discertization of aquifer have determined. Also
calibration in steady and transient state was done by using available
information. In order to confidence of simulation results, verification test
did on data rest. Therefore representative hydrograph and water table contour
in 10, 30 and 50 future years (1397, 1417 and 1437) was forecasted. Result
showed that drawdown trend of representative hydrograph will be 0.331, 0.298
and 0.27 meters per year in 10, 30 and 50 future years respectively. So it
understands that drawdown trend will decrease with increase of forecasted


  • Receive Date: 25 September 2010
  • Revise Date: 06 March 2014
  • Accept Date: 12 October 2011
  • Publish Date: 22 November 2011