نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
عنوان مقاله English
نویسندگان English
Climate change is any change in climate over time, which can be caused by natural changes or human activities. Recently, awareness of climate change has become important due to the negative socio-economic consequences and financial damages associated with climate conditions. Most hydrological phenomena are usually described by two or more dependent variables. A review of the literature shows that multivariate distribution functions are widely used to model two or more hydrological dependent variables and their dependence structure (Salvadori and De Mickele., 2007). For this reason, copula functions were used in hydrological analysis (Xiao et al., 2008), which is the most up-to-date mathematical tool for evaluating multivariate problems. The aim of the present study is to develop a copula-based probabilistic model to analyze the effect of climate change on precipitation and river discharge in the Siminehrood River Basin. The innovation of this research is the use of the Sixth Assessment Report on Climate Change and the use of 26 climate models to estimate precipitation, as well as the use of Archimedean copula functions, extreme-value, FGM, and Plackett in predicting and probabilistically simulating the effect of climate change on precipitation parameters and river discharge in the Siminehrood River Basin.
کلیدواژهها English
