ارزیابی دقت مدل‌های مولد LarsWG و پیش بینی بارش در حوضه آبریز کرخه

آریا صدر, مریم; رحیمی, داریوش

doi:10.22055/jise.2025.48808.2153

ارزیابی دقت مدل‌های مولد LarsWG و پیش بینی بارش در حوضه آبریز کرخه

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

مریم آریا صدر ¹

داریوش رحیمی ²

¹ دانش آموخته دکتری آب و هواشناسی، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

² استاد، گروه جغرافیای طبیعی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی و برنامه ریزی، دانشگاه اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران

10.22055/jise.2025.48808.2153

چکیده

از پیامدهای خشکسالی‌های اخیر، کاهش جریان رودخانه‌ و افزایش آسیب‌پذیری منابع آب بوده است. از این رو، پیش‌بینی تغییرات بارش به‌منظور مدیریت منابع آب در آینده با توجه به تغییراقلیم یک چالش است؛ ارزیابی دقت مدل‌ها، از مهم‌ترین مراحل پیش‌بینی داده‌های تصادفی است. مدل‌سازی داده‌های اقلیمی همواره دارای عدم قطعیت هستند و نادیده گرفتن آن، بر صحت نتایج اثر منفی دارد. هدف پژوهش حاضر، ارزیابی دقت بهترین مدل در برآورد بارش و پیش‌بینی تغییرات بارش در حوضه آبریز کرخه است. از این رو، از داده‌های روزانه‌ی بارش ایستگاه‌های همدید در سراب (کرمانشاه)، میان آب (خرم آباد) و پایاب (بستان) در دوره‌ی پایه 2021-1991 بر اساس خروجی مولد ریزمقیاس LarsWG8 استفاده شد. برای تعیین میزان عدم قطعیت مدل‌ها نیز از شاخص‌های r, RMSE, NRMSE استفاده و میزان بارش در دوره 2100-2021 پیش‌نگری شد. نتایج نشان داد علاوه بر مدل ACCESS-ESM1 در هر سه ایستگاه، مدل‌های CNRM-CM6-1، GFDL-ESM4 و MRI-ESM2-0 بالاترین دقت را در پیش‌بینی بارش دارند. بر اساس سناریوی واقع‌بینانه (SSP2-4.5) و بر اساس شاخص RMSE دقت مدل‌ها در کرمانشاه به‌ترتیب 8.5، 11.7، 13.3 و 9.7، در خرم آباد 5/12، 2/10، 12 و 4/9 و در بستان 9/5، 6/4، 6/5و 7 است. بررسی دوره‌ی آتی در قالب چهار دوره‌ی 20 ساله انجام شد. تغییرات بارش دوره نخست (2040-2021)، در ایستگاه‌ کرمانشاه کاهش 9/34 میلی‌متری در سناریوی SSP1-2.6، افزایش 1/4 میلی‌متری در سناریوی SSP2-4.5 و کاهش 5/6 میلی‌متری در سناریوی SSP5-8.5 خواهد داشت، در ایستگاه خرم آباد در سناریوی SSP1-2.6 و SSP2-4.5 به‌ترتیب 8/3 و 5/42 میلی‌متر افزایشی و در سناریوی SSP5-8.5 35.5 میلی‌متر کاهشی و در ایستگاه بستان در سناریوی SSP1-2.6، SSP2-4.5 و SSP5-8.5 07/17، 04/4و 3/0 میلی‌متر کاهشی خواهد بود، در دوره مشاهداتی بخش شمالی حوضه کرخه، پر بارش و بخش جنوبی کم بارش است. در دوره آتی وقوع خشکسالی در نواحی شمال غرب و جنوب حوضه افزایش خواهد یافت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

حوضه آبریز کرخه

مبدل برآوردگر

صحت‌سنجی

گرمایش جهانی

پیش نگری

موضوعات

هوا و اقلیم شناسی

عنوان مقاله English

Evaluation of the accuracy of LarsWG models and precipitation forecasting in the Karkheh Basin

نویسندگان English

Maryam Aryasadr ¹

Dariush Rahimi ²

¹ 1- Ph.D. Graduate of Climatology, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

² Professor, Department of Physical Geography, Faculty of Geographical Sciences and Planning, University of Isfahan, Isfahan, Iran

چکیده English

Recent droughts have significantly reduced river discharge and increased the vulnerability of water resources, making reliable precipitation projections under climate change essential for sustainable water resources management. However, climate simulations are inherently uncertain, and evaluating model performance is a prerequisite for producing reliable future projections. This study aimed to identify the most accurate climate models for simulating precipitation and to assess future precipitation changes in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran. Daily precipitation records from three representative weather stations located in the upstream (Kermanshah), middle (Khorramabad), and downstream (Bostan) sections of the basin were analyzed for the baseline period (1991–2021) using the LARS-WG8 weather generator and outputs from multiple CMIP6 global climate models. Model performance was evaluated using the correlation coefficient (r), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), and Normalized Root Mean Square Error (NRMSE), and precipitation was projected for the period 2021–2100 under the SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed that ACCESS-ESM1 consistently achieved the highest performance across all stations, while CNRM-CM6-1, GFDL-ESM4, and MRI-ESM2-0 also demonstrated high predictive accuracy. Future projections indicate considerable spatial and temporal variability in precipitation, with generally increasing precipitation in parts of the central basin but declining trends in the upstream and downstream regions under most scenarios. The observed north-to-south precipitation gradient is expected to persist, while drought frequency and severity are projected to increase, particularly in the northwestern and southern parts of the basin. These findings provide valuable information for climate adaptation planning and sustainable water resources management in the Karkheh River Basin.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

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Karkheh catchment

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