علوم و مهندسی آبیاری

علوم و مهندسی آبیاری

تعیین مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر رواناب و شبیه‌سازی بارش-رواناب با مدل هیدرولوژیکی SWAT (مطالعه موردی: حوضه آبخیز خرسان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
1 استاد، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران
2 دانش‌آموخته دکتری علوم و مهندسی آبخیزداری، گروه مهندسی آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران
3 استاد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.
4 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشکده مهندسی زراعی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.
چکیده
مدل‌سازی بارش-رواناب ابزاری برای پیش‌بینی سیل و اجتناب از تهدیدات و به حداقل رساندن خطرات است. در این مطالعه از مدل ابزار ارزیابی آب و خاک (SWAT) برای تعیین مؤلفه‌های مؤثر بر رواناب استفاده شده است. به این منظور ابتدا داده‌های مکانی شامل مدل رقومی ارتفاع (DEM)، کاربری اراضی و خاک‌شناسی از منابع معتبر اخذ و در نرم‌افزار ArcGIS نهایی گردید، سپس داده‌های اقلیمی شامل بارندگی، بیشینه و کمینه دما، رطوبت نسبی، سرعت باد، تبخیر و تعرق و تابش خورشیدی از ایستگاه‌های مختلف هواشناسی تهیه گردید. به‌منظور اجرای مدل از افزونه ArcSWAT و مدل SWAT استفاده گردید. فرآیند واسنجی مدل نیز با استفاده از الگوریتم SUFI2 انجام و سپس اقدام به اعتبارسنجی و آنالیز حساسیت مدل شد. ارزیابی عملکرد مدل نیز با استفاده از معیارهای ارزیابی آماری از جمله RMSE، R2 و NSE انجام گردید. نتایج آنالیز حساسیت مدل نشان داد که مدل از مجموع 23 پارامتر به 16 پارامتر آن حساس است. همچنین شبیه‌سازی مدل در دوره واسنجی و اعتبارسنجی با مقادیر RMSE برابر با 01/18 و 93/53 و مقدار R2 برابر با 85/0 و 91/0 و ضریب NSE برابر با 72/0 و 36/0 بیان از عملکرد مدل در شبیه‌سازی بارش-رواناب در حوضه مورد مطالعه دارد. با توجه به اقلیم خشک و نیمه‌خشک کشور ایران و محدودیت منابع آب، نیاز به شناسایی مهمترین مؤلفه‌ها بر فرآیند تبدیل بارش به رواناب است. بنابراین می‌توان مدل SWAT را ابزاری مفید در تعیین این مؤلفه‌ها دانست و جهت برنامه‌ریزی منابع آبی و مدیریت آنها از آن در شبیه‌سازی بارش-رواناب استفاده کرد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Identifying Key Factors Influencing Runoff and Simulating Rainfall-Runoff with the SWAT Hydrological Model: A Case Study of the Khersan Watershed

نویسندگان English

Kaka Shahedi 1
Sayed Hussein Roshun 2
, Ali Shahnazari 3
, Mehdi Ghorbanifard 4
1 Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
2 Researcher, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources, Sari Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
3 Professor, Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture Engineering, Sari Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
4 M.Sc., Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture Engineering, Sari Agriculture Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
چکیده English

Rainfall-runoff modeling is a tool for flood prediction, and risk minimization. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to determine the factors affecting runoff. For this purpose, spatial data including Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use, and soil were obtained from reliable sources and finalized in ArcGIS software. Then, climatic data including precipitation, maximum and minimum temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, evapotranspiration, and solar radiation were obtained from various meteorological stations. The model calibrated using the SUFI2 algorithm and then the model validation and sensitivity analysis were carried out. The model performance was evaluated using statistical evaluation criteria including RMSE, R2 and NSE. The results of the model sensitivity analysis showed that the model is sensitive to 16 of the 23 parameters. Also, the model simulation during the calibration and validation period with RMSE values ​​of 18.01 and 53.93 and R2 values ​​of 0.85 and 0.91 and NSE coefficients of 0.72 and 0.36 indicate the model performance in the rainfall-runoff simulation in the studied basin. Given the arid and semi-arid climate of Iran and the limited water resources, there is a need to identify the most important components in the process of converting precipitation into runoff. Therefore, the SWAT model can be considered a useful tool in determining these components and can be used in rainfall-runoff simulation for water resources planning and management.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Sensitivity Analysis
Flood Forecasting
Water Resources Management
ArcSWAT
Khersan Watershed
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دوره 49، شماره 2
تابستان 1405
صفحه 89-104

  • تاریخ دریافت 03 بهمن 1403
  • تاریخ بازنگری 19 مرداد 1404
  • تاریخ پذیرش 06 شهریور 1404
  • تاریخ انتشار 14 مرداد 1405