Water security, as one of the fundamental pillars of human security and sustainable development, is facing increasing challenges in Iranian watersheds, particularly the Karkheh basin. This research, with the aim of explaining possible future of water security in irrigation management of the Karkheh watershed, uses a futurology and scenario writing method based on cross-impact balanced (CIB) analysis. First, through a systematic review of sources and expert assessment, 76 key driving forces, and ultimately 14 key drivers of water security in the agricultural sector were selected and analyzed for Influence and influenceability in a 14x14 matrix. The results of the MICMAC analysis showed that drivers such as climate change, water resource utilization patterns, The development of recycling technologies, and knowledge-based agriculture play the greatest role in determining the future of water security. In the next step,38 possible conditions were defined for these drivers and a cross-effects matrix was prepared. The Scenario wizard Software Analysis identified three credible and compatible scenarios for the future water security of the Karkheh Basin:1)a water resilience and prosperity scenario driven by strong local governance, equitable reallocation, pollution control, and new technologies; 2) Vortex of Instability and Escalating Tensions from island governance, limited local participation, and extreme drought, and 3) Irreversible water desert caused by excessive exploitation, increasing pollution, weak governance, and intensifying climate change

The findings show that the future of water security in the Karkheh Basin is a function of the interaction of climatic, institutional, technological, and social factors, and adopting participatory, technological, and integrated approaches can lead the basin towards resilience and sustainability.