توسعه مدل شبیه‌سازی توالی بارش روزانه با استفاده از زنجیره مارکف و حفظ همبستگی مکانی (مطالعه موردی: استان خوزستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مهندسی منابع آب، دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ایران.

2 استاد گروه علوم و مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بوعلی‌سینا، همدان، ایران.

3 استادیار دانشگاه تحصیلات تکمیلی صنعتی و فناوری پیشرفته، کرمان، ایران.

چکیده

یکی از راه‌حل‌های عملی در بخش کشاورزی پیش­ بینی بارندگی و پراکندگی زمانی آن است. مدیریت مناسب استفاده از آب باران و پیش ­بینی وقوع و یا عدم وقوع بارش در دوره ­های روزانه نقش بارزی در برنامه­ ریزی­ های کشاورزی و مدیریت منابع آب دارد. در این مطالعه به­ منظور مدل­ سازی بارش 24 ساعته و توالی­ های مربوطه، از داده ­های بارش روزانه چهار ایستگاه سینوپتیک استان خوزستان که دارای اقلیم‌های خشک معتدل، نیمه‌خشک معتدل و دوره آماری 30 ساله بودند، استفاده گردید. شبیه ­سازی فقط برای ماه­ هایی صورت گرفت که در آن­ها بارش ثبت‌شده، وجود داشت. بدین منظور از مدل زنجیره مارکف مرتبه ­های اول، دوم و سوم دو حالته برای محاسبات وقوع بارش استفاده گردید. برای تعیین مناسب ­ترین مرتبه مدل زنجیره مارکف از آزمون AIC استفاده شد. هم‌چنین با توجه به اهمیت حفظ همبستگی مکانی بین ایستگاه ­های مورد بررسی، از روش ویلکس در شبیه­ سازی وقوع بارش استفاه گردید. عملکرد روش ویلکس در شبیه­ سازی وقوع بارش روزانه توسط مدل زنجیره مارکف مرتبه اول و همبستگی مکانی بین ایستگا‌ه‌های مورد بررسی با استفاده از شاخص آماری ضریب تعیین (R2) مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج بررسی معیار AIC نشان می­د هد که مدل زنجیره مارکف مرتبه اول برای برآورد وقوع بارش روزانه مناسب­ ترین مدل می ­باشد. بر اساس این معیار، به ­طور متوسط برتری مدل زنجیره مارکف مرتبه اول از مرتبه دوم و سوم به­ترتیب 61 و 74 درصد برای تمام ایستگاه ­های مطالعاتی بوده است. هم‌چنین براساس معیار R2 ،مشخص شد که روش ویلکس قادر است با دقت قابل قبولی، وقوع بارش را به ­صورت منطقه‌ای شبیه‌سازی نماید .

کلیدواژه‌ها

عنوان مقاله [English]

Development of Daily Rainfall Simulation Model by Using Markove Chain and Preserve Spatial Correlation (Case Study: Khozestan Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nadia Shahraki 1
  • Safar Marofi 2
  • Mohammad Sadegh Ghazanfari Moghadam 3
1 Ph.D. Student of Water Sciences Engineering Department, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
2 Professor of Water Sciences Engineering Department, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor on Graduate University of advanced technology, Kerman, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Water scarcity is a big problem in many areas, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. It is rising due to the demand growth driven by increased economic activity and population growth in developing countries. Since Iran is on the world's dry belt and it has rain equivalent to 1/3 of the rain world's average, it is considered a dry country. The rain trend indicates that Iran is going to drought, so plans and measures of water resources management should be developed accordingly (Samadi Broujeni and Ebrahimi, 2010). Also rainfall in Iran is one of the main variables for assessing of water resources, but its spatial and temporal distribution is very Non-uniform. For this reason, the water resources distribution of the country is not uniform, too. Preservation and water resources management are not only a function of rainfall but also depend on the variability of rainfall. If spatial change of rainfall be small, the water resources are more homogeneity and consistency (Mirmousavi and zohrehvandi, 2011) . Hence, the rainfall variations are important in assessing water resources of rivers and the relative study of local and regional water resources. Although various approaches have been proposed for modeling of rainfall, the use of single generators can not properly reproduce the spatial correlations between different meteorological variables. In this paper, was used the first-order Markov chain(MC1), the second-order Markov chain(MC2) and the third-order Markov chain(MC3) for the occurrence of daily precipitation. The Wilks method was used to simulate the occurrence of daily precipitation by preserving the spatial correlation between stations for four synoptic stations in Khozestan province of Iran, considering the importance of preserving the spatial correlation between adjacent stations in water and agricultural studies in daily scale, which has not been studied in Iran up to now.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Wilks approach
  • Regional rainfall
  • Climate of arid moderate
  • Climate of semi-arid moderate

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علوم و مهندسی آبیاری
دوره 46، شماره 2
شهریور 1402
صفحه 15-29

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 02 اردیبهشت 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 09 خرداد 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 خرداد 1398

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