تأثیر تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز آبی محصول برنج در آبخیز تجن

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، ایران.

2 استاد، گروه آبخیزداری، دانشکده منابع طبیعی و علوم دریایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، نور، ایران.

3 دانشیار، گروه مهندسی و مدیریت آب، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

تغییر اقلیم به­واسطه اثر­گذاری بر نیاز آبی محصولات زراعی، مدیریت منابع آبی را به­شدت با چالش مواجه کرده است. در این پژوهش به شبیه­سازی اثر تغییر اقلیم بر نیاز آبی محصول برنج در محدوده مطالعاتی آبخیز تجن پرداخته و روند تغییرات آن تا سال 2060 مطالعه گردید. برای بررسی تغییر اقلیم از نرم­افزار Lars-WG و خروجی­های مدل HadGEM2 تحت سناریوهای اقلیمی (RCP 2.6) و (RCP 8.5 استفاده شده است. برای ارزیابی تاثیر تغییر اقلیم در40 سال آتی بر نیاز آبی، با استفاده از نرم­افزار CROPWAT 8.0 میزان تبخیر و تعرق پتانسیل و واقعی و بارندگی مؤثر برای دوره آتی محاسبه شده و نیاز آبی محصول تعیین شد و با نیاز آبی دوره فعلی مورد مقایسه قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان دادند میانگین نیاز آبی برنج در سناریو RCP 2.6 در بازه زمانی 2040-2021  و 2060-2041 به­ترتیب برابر با 27/658 و 46/658 میلی­متر با افزایشی معادل 56/1 و 59/1 درصد نسبت به دوره فعلی و در سناریو RCP 8.5 در بازه زمانی 2040-2021 و 2060-2041 به­ترتیب برابر با 93/672 و 673 میلی­متر معادل با 83/3 و84/3 درصد افزایش، پیش­بینی می­شود. بنابراین نیاز آبی بر اساس هر دو سناریو­های اقلیمی در تمام بازه­های زمانی نسبت به دوره تاریخی که میزان آن 648 میلی­متر است، افزایش داشته است. بنابراین تغییر اقلیم با تأثیر بر میزان تبخیر و تعرق و بارندگی مؤثر ، باعث روند افزایشی نیاز آبی برنج در هر دو سناریوهای اقلیمی در دوره زمانی آتی (2021-2060) می­شود. میزان افزایش نیاز آبی در دوره زمانی آتی دور (2060-2041) در مقایسه با دوره زمانی آتی نزدیک (2040-2021) نسبت به دوره تاریخی، بیشتر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Effect of Climate Change on Water Requirement of Rice Crop in the Tajan Watershed

نویسندگان [English]

  • Faeze Jafari 1
  • Hamid Reza Moradi 2
  • Ali Bagheri 3
1 PhD Student in Watershed Management, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Watershed Management, Faculty of Natural Resources and Marine Sciences, Tarbiat Modares University, Noor, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Water Management and Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Climate change has greatly challenged the management of water resources due to its impact on water requirements of crops. In this research, the effect of climate change on water requirement of Rice crop was simulated in the study area of ​​ the Tajan watershed and its changes until 2060 were studied. To investigate climate change, Lars-WG software and HadGEM2 model outputs under (RCP 2.6) and (RCP 8.5) climate scenarios have been used. To evaluate the impact of climate change in the next 40 years on water requirement, using CROPWAT 8.0 software, potential and actual evapotranspiration and effective rainfall were calculated for the future period and crop water requirement was determined and compared with the water requirement of the current period. The results showed that the mean water requirement of Rice crop in the RCP 2.6 scenario were predicted in 2040-2021 and 2041-2060 periods is equal to 658.27 and 658.46 mm, respectively, and in the RCP 8.5 scenario in 2040-2021 and 2041-2060 periods were predicted to be equal to 672.93 and 673 mm, respectively. Therefore, according to both climate scenarios, the water requirement has increased in all time periods compared to the current period, which is about 648 mm.
Mazandaran is a province based on agricultural production and it has long been one of the centers of Rice cultivation as the second strategic product of the country. planting Rice is very vital and important for the economy of the whole region. Therefore, it is necessary to study the evaluation of changes in the water requirement of Products in response to climate change conditions.
Various researchers investigated the effects of climate change on water requirement, some of which are mentioned below.
Casolani et al. (2020) in a study investigated the effect of climate change on water requirement of crops. The results showed that the water requirement in the periods of 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 will increase by 6, 19, and 24 percent, respectively, compared to the current period. Jia et al. (2021) investigated the changes in the water requirement of crops under climate change conditions. The results showed that the effective rainfall increases by 0.98 mm per year and the water requirement decreases by 2.27 mm per year.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate Scenarios
  • Effective Rainfall
  • CROPWAT
  • Lars-WG
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