پیش بینی خشکسالی با استفاده از مدل تلفیقی شبکه عصبی مصنوعی- موجک و مدل سری زمانیARIMA

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

2 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه بوعلی سینا، همدان، ایران.

چکیده

تبدیل موجک یکی از روش­های نوین و بسیار موثر در زمینه تحلیل سیگنال­ها و سری­های زمانی است. در این روش سیگنال شاخص بارش استاندارد (SPI) با استفاده از موجک مادر منتخب تجزیه شده، داده­های حاصل به­عنوان ورودی مدل شبکه عصبی مصنوعی در نظر گرفته شده و یک مدل تلفیقی برای پیش­بینی خشکسالی ارائه می­گردد. در این تحقیق، از شبکه­های عصبی مصنوعی پرسپترون چند لایه (MLP) و تابع پایه‌ای شعاعی ((RBF، سری زمانی ARIMA و هم­چنین شبکه­های عصبی مصنوعی- موجک پرسپترون چند لایه (WA-MLP) و تابع پایه‌ای شعاعی (WA-RBF) برای پیش­بینی استفاده شده است. در این خصوص، از داده‌های بارندگی ایستگاه بیدستان با دوره آماری 44 ساله در حوضه آبریز شور استفاده شد. وضعیت رطوبتی با استفاده از شاخص بارندگی استاندارد شده (SPI) در دوره‌ سه ماهه محاسبه گردید. برای تخمین مقدار SPI در هر بازه زمانی، از مقادیر مربوطه در زمان‌های ماقبل، استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد مدل WA-MLP با دقت بالاتری (87/0=R2) مقادیر SPI و وضعیت خشکسالی کوتاه مدت را پیش‌بینی می‌کند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Drought Forecasting Using Artificial Wavelet Neural Network Integrated Model (WA-ANN) and Time Series Model (ARIMA)

نویسندگان [English]

  • mahbobeh younesi 1
  • Nadiya Shahraki 1
  • Safar Marofi 2
  • Hamed Nozari 3
1 Ph.D. Student on Water Resources Engineering, Department of Science and Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
2 Professor, Department of Science and Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Science and Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture, Bu-Ali Sina University, Hamedan, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Drought prediction in water resources systems plays an important role in reducing drought damage. In recent decades, Traditional methods including: fitting and mathematical models have been widely used to predict droughts. The combination of wavelet theory and neural networks has led to the expansion of the wavelet-neural networks. The application of the wavelet as training function in the neural network has recently been identified as a substitute method in neural networks. In these models, the position and scale coefficients of the wavelets are optimized in addition to the weights (Thuillard, 2000). Considering the importance of short-term drought prediction in water resources engineering and the nonlinear characteristics of the SPI series of three months, the purpose of this study is to present an Artificial Wavelet Neural Networks integrated model for predicting short-term drought at Bidestan station in Qazvin plain.
In this research, Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Base Function (RBF), ARIMA time series, as well as Artificial Wavelet Neural Networks integrated model and Multi-layer Perceptron (WA-MLP) and Radial Bonding Function (WA- RBF) were used, which is done by analyzing the time series investigated by the wavelet transformation and the entry of these sub-series into an artificial neural network.
According to previous researches on drought prediction, short-term drought prediction (with the definition of a three-month standard rainfall index) using the combined model of Wavelet-Neural Network and comparing its results with artificial neural network and ARIMA time series models has not been compared. In this paper, five short-term drought prediction models have been compared and a better performance model has been introduced.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • ARIMA
  • Artificial Wavelet Neural Networks
  • Drought
  • Forecasting
  • SPI

مراجع

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علوم و مهندسی آبیاری
دوره 41، شماره 2
تیر 1397
صفحه 167-181

فایل ها

سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 23 اردیبهشت 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 10 بهمن 1395
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 04 اسفند 1395
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 تیر 1397

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