مقایسه تحلیل فراوانی منطقه‌ای تک متغیره و دو ‌متغیره مشخصه‌های خشک‌‌سالی‌‌ (مطالعه موردی: بخشی از اقلیم نیمه‌خشک در استان فارس)

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده علوم‌کشاورزی و صنایع‌غذایی، گروه مهندسی سیستم‌های کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی.تهران.

2 استاد، دانشکده علوم‌کشاورزی و صنایع‌غذایی، گروه مهندسی سیستم‌های کشاورزی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران.

3 استادیار گروه علوم و مهندسی‌آب، واحد شیراز،دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران

4 استاد، دانشکده بخش مهندسی‌آب ،دانشکده‌کشاورزی شیراز.

چکیده

تحلیل خشک‌‌سالی‌‌ با توجه به تأثیرات قابل ملاحظه بر کشاورزی و منابع آب، از اهمیت زیادی برخوردار است. با توجه به همبستگی معنی‌دارمشخصه‌های خشک‌‌‌سالی هواشناسی با یک‌دیگر و وجود مناطق فاقد آمار، در این تحقیق یک تحلیل فراوانی منطقه‌ای دو‌متغیره در محدوده نیمه‌خشک استان فارس ارایه شده است.هدف اصلی این تحلیل آشکارسازی تاثیر وابستگی مشخصه‌های خشک‌‌سالی بر فراوانی وقوع و دوره بازگشت آن‌ها است. به‌منظور تحلیل فراوانی منطقه‌ای از روش خشک‌سالی‌‌ شاخص در ترکیب با روش گشتاورهای خطی استفاده گردیده و توزیع دو‌متغیره خصوصیات خشک‌‌سالی‌‌ برای مناطق همگن از طریق توابع مفصل تخمین زده شده است. نتایج نشان‌داد تابع گامبل مناسب‌ترین مفصل به‌منظور نشان‌دادن توزیع دو‌متغیره خشک‌‌سالی‌‌ در این منطقه می‌باشد. مقایسه دوره بازگشتیک‌متغیره و دو‌متغیرهمشخصه‌های منطقه‌ای خشک‌سالی نیز نشان می‌دهد، مقادیر شدت و مدت بدون بعد برای دوره بازگشت 100 ساله در حالت یک‌متغیره معادل 95/8 و 42/5 بوده و بر‌اساس توزیع دو‌متغیره، همین مقادیر در حالت (D ≥ 5/42 and S ≥ 8/95) دارای دوره بازگشت 195 سال و در شرایط (D ≥ 5/42 or S ≥ 8/95) دوره بازگشتی معادل 67 سال دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Comparison of univariate and bivariate regional frequency analysis of drought (case study: Part of semi-Arid climate of Fars Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Vahid Ghafori 1
  • Hosein Sedghi 2
  • Reza afshin Sharifan 3
  • Seyed Mohammad Jafar Nazemosadat 4
1 Department of Agricultural Systems Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
2 Department of Agricultural Systems Engineering, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran.
3 Department of Water Resources Engineering, Shiraz Branch, Islamic Azad University, Shiraz, Iran
4 Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agriculture Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Drought is one of the most complex and destructive climatic phenomena, which can be perceived as the least understood natural disaster (Kao and Govindaraju, 2010). The most important and challenging characteristics of drought are frequency and return period (Bazrafshan et al., 2014; and Zhang et al. 2015). This complexity is derived from the interdependence of drought characteristics that make the univariate frequency analysis inefficient (Mirakbari et al., 2012). Therefore, instead of using traditional univariate analysis, a better approach is to derive the joint distribution of drought variables (Mishra and Singh 2010). Furthermore, insufficient data at the stations and the existence of ungagged areas necessitate regional analysis. Regional frequency analysis, on the one hand, provides the possibility of analysis for ungagged regions, and, on the other hand, provides better and more comprehensive information for meteorological stations using a combination of points and regional data. The main objective of this research is regional bivariate drought analysis in the semi-arid climate of Fars Province, Iran. In this regard, the index variable based on linear moments is one of the most advanced methods ( Núñez ez et al., 2011).

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Linear moments
  • copula function
  • return period
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