بررسی و پایش شدت و تداوم خشکسالی کشاورزی دشت شهرکرد در نیم قرن اخیر و مقایسه آن با خشکسالی های هواشناسی

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه شهرکرد-دانشکده کشاورزی- گروه مهندسی آب

چکیده

در این مطالعه خشکسالی کشاورزی در دشت شهرکرد در نیم قرن اخیر با روش (ETDI) اصلاح شده ارزیابی شد و با شاخص بارش استاندارد در مقیاس­های زمانی مختلف مقایسه گردید. همچنین شدت و تداوم خشکسالی­های کشاورزی نیم قرن اخیر با روش لوکاس مشخص گردید. نتایج بیانگر آن است که شاخص SPI3 برآورد نسبتا خوبی از ETDI ارائه می­نماید. بررسی تاریخی خشکسالی­های کشاورزی موٌید وجود خشکسالی­­های مداوم با شدت­های مختلف در منطقه است. حدودا در 50% از دوران سپری شده نیم قرن اخیر منطقه دارای شدت خشکسالی­های کشاورزی نسبتاً آزاردهنده بوده و مابقی دوران ملایم­تر شده است. دشت یک خشکسالی کشاورزی مداوم بیست­وهشت ساله (1987-1960) را پشت سر گذارده که احتمالا اثرات مخربی بر وضعیت کشاورزی و مراتع منطقه داشته است. از آن به بعد حدود دوازده سال (1999-1988) شدت خشکسالی­های کشاورزی ملایم­تر شده ولی مجددا از سال 2000 به مدت چهارسال روبه افزایش نهاده و سپس روند کاهشی به خود گرفته است. ضروری است سازمان­ها و ادارات ذیربط با همکاری ثمنهای (NGO) فعال نسبت به برنامه­ریزی مداوم برای اجرای سیاست­های مقابله با خشکسالی­ها اقدامات لازم را به عمل آورند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of the Duration and Severity of Agricultural Drought in Recent Half Century Using the Modified ETDI Method and Comparing it with the SPI in Shahrekord Plain

نویسنده [English]

  • Mahdi Radfar
Assistant Prof, Water Engineering Department, Shahrekord University, Iran
چکیده [English]

Severity and duration of agricultural droughts have distressed farmers worldwide by triggering hazards for agricultural products. Droughts are a widespread natural threat with tremendous social impact (Alston and Kent, 2004; Glantz, 1987). They are most often caused by a significant drop in precipitation from the normal amount. Agriculture is often the first sector to be affected by the onset of drought due to its dependence on water resources and soil moisture reserves during various stages of crop growth (Narasimhan and Srinivasan, 2005). Recent studies show that the frequency and severity of droughts seems to be increasing in some areas as a result of climate variability and climate change (IPCC, 2007; Patz et al., 2005; Sheffield and Wood, 2008; Lehner et al., 2006). Among various drought indices, Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) (Palmer, 1965), Crop Moisture Index (CMI) (Palmer, 1968), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) (McKee et al., 1993), Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) (Shafer and Dezman, 1982), and The ETDI (Narasimhan and Srinivasan, 2005) are used extensively for water resources management as well as for agricultural drought monitoring and forecasting. In this study, the agricultural droughts during the recent half-century were evaluated by the modified ETDI method and compared with the SPI as well as meteorological drought index in Shahrekord plain. The results show that the estimation of modified ETDI by SPI3 is applicable.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Agricultural Drought
  • Duration
  • Severity
  • Shahrekord Plain
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