تخمین میزان حداکثر بارش های محتمل تحت شرایط تغییر اقلیم در حوضه آبریز پارسیان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکترا اقلیم شناسی، گروه جغرافیا، واحد نجف‌آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه هیدرولوژی و منابع آب، دانشکده مهندسی آب و محیط زیست، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز.

4 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد نجف آباد، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، نجف آباد، ایران.

چکیده

تغییرات آب و هوایی ناشی از گرمایش کره زمین، موجب تغییر در میزان و نوع بارش­ها و هم­چنین توزیع مکانی و زمانی بارش خواهد شد. از مهم­ترین پیامدهای تغییر اقلیم می­توان به تاثیر بر پدیده­های حدی مانند خشک­سالی و بارش­های شدید اشاره کرد. در این مقاله به بررسی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر میزان حداکثر بارش محتمل در حوضه آبریز پارسیان پرداخته شده است. برای این منظور ابتدا با استفاده از دو روش هرشفیلد و هرشفیلد-دسا، حداکثر بارش محتمل برای دوره پایه محاسبه شد. سپس خروجی بیست و سه مدل گردش عمومی جو تحت دو سناریوی RCP 4.5 و RCP 8.5 به­عنوان دو سناریوی با سطح انتشار متوسط و بدبینانه برای دوره­ی 2050-2020، به کمک داده­های روزانه بارش در دوره­ی پایه برای پنج ایستگاه هواشناسی موجود در منطقه ریزمقیاس شدند. در نهایت با استفاده از بارش­های برآورد­شده برای آینده در هر پنج ایستگاه، مقدار حداکثر بارش محتمل به­دست آمد. نتایج نشان داد  در دوره­ی آتی، حداکثر بارش محتمل نسبت به دوره پایه کاهش می­یابد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Estimation of Probable Maximum Precipitation under Climate Change in Parsian Basin

نویسندگان [English]

  • Simin Monjezi 1
  • Amir Gandomkar 2
  • Heidar Zarei 3
  • Alireza Abbasi 4
1 PhD student of Climatology, Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran
3 Associate Professor, Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, Faculty of Water and Environmental Engineering, Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz. Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Geography, Najafabad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Najafabad, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Climate change caused by global warming has altered temporal-spatial distribution as well as rate and form of precipitation, the magnitude of floods, annual precipitation ​​in rivers, seasonal variation of probable maximum precipitation and flood, water quality, evaporation rate, concentrations of nutrients in aquifers, etc. the Atmosphere-Ocean Coupled General Circulation Model (AOGCM) is currently the most reliable tool to study the effects of climate change on different systems. This model simulates climate parameters. Estimation of probable maximum precipitation (PMP) is an important and practical research method that not only identifies behavior of extreme rainfall in climatology, but also helps hydrologists to design various large water control structures, especially dams. Climate change affects PMP in the coming periods. Consequently, PMP estimates will be modified by hydrologists.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Global Warming
  • Precipitation Change Trend
  • Global Circulation Model
  • Climate change Scenario

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علوم و مهندسی آبیاری
دوره 45، شماره 4
اسفند 1401
صفحه 31-48

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 خرداد 1400
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 25 تیر 1400
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 29 تیر 1400
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 اسفند 1401

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