تأثیرات تغییر‌اقلیم بر نیاز آبی برنج‌، بهره وری آب، و عملکرد برنج با استفاده از آنالیز ریسک

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری آبیاری و زهکشی، گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

2 استاد گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران

3 دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی ساری، ساری، ایران.

4 استاد گروه مهندسی کشاورزی و زیست شناسی، دانشگاه فلوریدا، گینزویل، آمریکا.

چکیده

مطالعه حاضر، با هدف بررسی تأثیرات تغییر­اقلیم بر نیاز آبی، بهره ­وری آب و ریسک عملکرد برنج رقم هاشمی، تحت سه سناریوی انتشار خوش­بینانه، بینابینی و بدبینانه گازهای گلخانه ­ای شامل: RCP2.6،  RCP4.5و RCP8.5 صورت گرفت. تیمارهای اجرا شده در مزرعه شامل: دو روش کم ­آبیاری تنظیم­شده (آبیاری تمام جویچه ­ها) و خشکی بخشی ریشه (آبیاری یک در میان جویچه ­ها) هر یک با سه سطح سطح تنش خشکی 10، 30 و 60 کیلوپاسکال (RDI10، PRD10، RDI30، PRD30، RDI60، PRD60) و تیمار آبیاری کرتی با مدیریت غرقاب دایم (FI) بود. از مدل گیاهی CERES-Rice برای شبیه ­سازی رشد و توسعه برنج و از مدل گردش عمومی CanESM2 برای پیش­نگری تغییر­اقلیم آینده نزدیک (2047-2026) نسبت به دوره پایه (2005-1984) استفاده شد. تغییرات نیاز آبی حاکی از آن بود که میانگین نیاز آبی برنج برای همه تیمارهای آبیاری در همه سناریوهای RCP  به جز سناریوی بدبینانه RCP8.5 در آینده نزدیک کاهش خواهد یافت­. به ­دلیل کاهش طول دوره رشد، میزان بهره ­وری آب نسبت به دوره پایه در سناریوهای RCP  کاهش نشان داد. با این حال، بیشترین میزان بهره ­وری آب گیاه به تیمار آبیاری FI اختصاص داشت که به­ دلیل رطوبت زیاد خاک در مقایسه با تیمارهای کم­آبیاری بود. ارزیابی ریسک عملکرد نشان داد که درصد ریسک عملکرد برنج نسبت به میانگین دوره پایه افزایش خواهد یافت. به ­گونه ­ای که ریسک کاهش 500 کیلوگرم در هکتار عملکرد برنج در تیمار آبیاری سنتی FI، تحت سناریوهای پایه (Baseline)، RCP4.5، RCP8.5 و RCP2.6 به­ ترتیب 13 درصد، 20 درصد ، 21 درصد و 31 درصد برآورد گردید.  نتایج حاصل از این مطالعه نشان داد که در صورت ثابت ماندن روش ­های مدیریتی در مزرعه، احتمالاً در آینده نزدیک، عملکرد برنج هاشمی کاهش می­یابد  و باید به دنبال بهینه­سازی روش­های مدیریتی و کشت ارقام مقاوم­تر به تنش ­های آبی بود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات

عنوان مقاله [English]

Impact of climate change on water requirement, water productivity, and rice yield using risk analysis

نویسندگان [English]

  • Dorsa Darikandeh 1
  • Ali Shahnazari 2
  • Mojtaba Khoshravesh 3
  • Gerrit Hoogenboom 4
1 PhD student in irrigation and Drainage, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran.
2 Faculty of Agriculture, Professor, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
3 Faculty of Agriculture, Associate Professor, Water Engineering Department, Sari Agricultural Sciences and Natural Resources University, Sari, Iran
4 Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida 32611–0570, US.
چکیده [English]

Climate change means any specific change in the long-term average weather state that occurs for a given location or for the entire globe (Goudarzi and Koupaei,­ 2020). Climate change is one of the most critical factors threatening food security, and it is expected to make food and nutrition security more challenging in the future (Carpena et al., 2019). It will affect the agricultural sector by changing the irrigation water requirements, crop yield, and water productivity (Boonwichai et al., 2018; Liu et al., 2019). Rice is the third most important crop in the world, following wheat and maize (Kapela et al., 2020). The occurrence of water shortages and droughts have raised concerns about the sustainability of rice production, including the main rice cultivation production region of Mazandaran in Iran (Yosefian 2018). Most studies have reported that rice production will decrease in the future due to a projected increase in temperature and a projected decrease in precipitation) Basak et al. 2010; Boonwichai et al. 2018; Nasir et al. 2020; Nicolas et al. 2020). Although many farmers, particularly in Iran, feel that permanent flooding conditions for rice farming are inevitable, climate change forces the use of water-saving technologies to ensure the long-term viability of irrigated rice production in paddy fields (Yosefian 2018; Mirfenderski 2022). Accordingly, it is necessary to find new methods for rice cultivation that reduce water use and make optimal use of the available water for irrigation while maintaining yield under climate change. The goal of this study was to examine the water requirement, water productivity, and risk of rice yield for different irrigation levels under various climate change scenarios using a crop simulation model.   

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • deficit irrigation
  • RCP scenarios
  • downscaling
  • crop model
  • DSSAT

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علوم و مهندسی آبیاری
دوره 46، شماره 3
آذر 1402
صفحه 35-55

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سابقه مقاله

  • تاریخ دریافت: 15 مرداد 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 مهر 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 24 مهر 1401
  • تاریخ انتشار: 01 آذر 1402

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